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Pappy Green

Declining population

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A player decline is normal in any new MMO.  There is a spike at launch and after the locust move on to the next new thing the numbers drop off.  I usually expect 60% drop in numbers from launch.   

 

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Just examining trends, don't get your pantaloons in a twist. The v10 patch has certainly had an effect of server populations.

Edited by Pappy Green

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My question is this, they have made their 12-25 million dollars and sales, with all the negative reviews, are likely stagnant. How much of that is going to go towards development and how much is going to line pockets? Once that has been decided, what is the threshold number of players required to continue development? Office space, salaries and tech don't come cheap. I have my doubts that with the current business model it will be sustainable for long. I hope I'm wrong, as I think the game has a lot of potential. But the over promise/under deliver method disappoints many. 

Edited by Pappy Green

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8 minutes ago, Pappy Green said:

Just examining trends, don't get your pantaloons in a twist. The v10 patch has certainly had an effect of server populations.

That’s not examining trends, that’s posting information readily available which suits your current agenda.  What that agenda is, who knows.  Oh, wait - “THE SKY IS FALLING LOL FAIL DEV”...that’s it, right?  Your agenda?  

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No my agenda is, I have 220+ hours in the game, I really enjoy it, I hope the developers care about what people like me think about things like the resource respawn issue, which it seems they don't.

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The peak player count happened during what was pretty much a holiday weekend, so that's something to keep in mind. There are also some pretty game breaking issues right now that are keeping some people (myself included) from playing at the moment. Until other players can't sink my ships in PvE and resource respawning is fixed in lawless, I'm not going to be spending much time in game. Might see an increase in population after those fixes.... if they ever come.  

You'll also see spikes in player population going forward every time there is a large update. Once the game is stable and not a complete dumpster fire after every update... things will likely improve. For now, so long as Atlas is above 20-30k players, I'd say its population is healthy... and I don't see it falling bellow that anytime soon. 

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2 minutes ago, Pappy Green said:

No my agenda is, I have 220+ hours in the game, I really enjoy it, I hope the developers care about what people like me think about things like the resource respawn issue, which it seems they don't.

They've posted about this, it is likely taking them time to deal with it.  I can understand being upset when they don't seem like they are doing anything but claiming the player base is leaving when they clearly are not and you couldn't possibly have enough data yet to even make the claim makes you seem like you have an agenda that can be equated to "LOL FAIL DEV".  Look at the player base trend, it goes up and down in normal patterns where people play based on time of day and sometimes taking days off, not everyone is on 24/7 and no life-ing the game right now.  There is quite literally only 1 day in the data set provided that makes it look like the game is failing, and that is due to new years eve/day.  I wouldn't worry so much about this.  You are right to be concerned if they are not listening or even trying to communicate but @Jatheish has done a fantastic job keeping people up to date on things they are working on.  No there isn't a complete dev tracker with a list of things they are working on right now to balance the game and what they are working on down the line.   But compared to how the team handled Ark sometimes, this is showing a lot more promise.

 

 

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Well if all the fanboys are right in that there's nothing to worry about, it must. My region has gone from 30 to 5 average in the last few days.

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funny how it falls in non peak times, and then climbs back up to 37k during peak times, pretty much every day.  sure 37k is well below 58k, but as people have said before that's not all that surprising for an early access title with a number of game breaking exploits.

Though there are still many issue with the game, it's clear to me that the devs are hard at work fixing issues, we have server side patches almost daily and larger client patches as they're available.

Edited by arzosah

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26 minutes ago, Hodo said:

A player decline is normal in any new MMO.  There is a spike at launch and after the locust move on to the next new thing the numbers drop off.  I usually expect 60% drop in numbers from launch.   

 

Its a Beta and some of us have to go back to work not everyone is living in moms basement....

1 minute ago, Pappy Green said:

Well if all the fanboys are right in that there's nothing to worry about, it must. My region has gone from 30 to 5 average in the last few days.

Great the lag will be manageable 

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2 minutes ago, Pappy Green said:

Well if all the fanboys are right in that there's nothing to worry about, it must. My region has gone from 30 to 5 average in the last few days.

See this is why people don't like talking here, when you can't support your argument you begin name calling.  Not everyone is a fan boy just because they have a differing opinion.  Your data is not thorough enough to support your hypothesis that there is a massively declining population.  

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Population will decline while we are in Early access due to the game changing and people not wanting to endure bugs. People will start to realize this. 

 

It'll get bigger once we hit the full release. I'm happy to see the game succeed and see the company flourish.

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2 minutes ago, Vaenix said:

See this is why people don't like talking here, when you can't support your argument you begin name calling.  Not everyone is a fan boy just because they have a differing opinion.  Your data is not thorough enough to support your hypothesis that there is a massively declining population.  

And I don't have a "OMG THE DEVS SUCK FAIL" agenda. It goes both ways.

And the title of this post was declining population, not MASSIVELY DECLINING POPULATION EVERYBODY ABANDON SHIP! 

Edited by Pappy Green

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2 minutes ago, Pappy Green said:

And I don't have a "OMG THE DEVS SUCK FAIL" agenda. It goes both ways.

I said you have the appearance of it due to the dramatic approach of using such a small pool of data.  If you really think 3 weeks of game play data is enough to make these claims then feel free to continue, I'll continue to assume that you are just trying to stir up drama rather than have any kind of meaningful discourse.

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Well, I was going to put a question mark at the end of my title, forgot to. Now I'm glad I didn't, it's fun to see all the knee jerk reactions.

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There is definitely going to be a short term dip in the player numbers because of the resource respawn issue. We've been online a few hours less a day since it happened, since there's little you can do without resources. At some point you have to repair, build something new etc. I'm sure others have the same experience.

The question is whether the short term dip becomes along term one. Which means it has to be patched soon.

Edited by Ringo O'Rourke
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So say there is no resource spawn right go to the newbie area farm your stuff build a raft and move said items to your quadrant. I know it sounds like no fun but depends on how bad you want to get up and running. 

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43 minutes ago, Pappy Green said:

My question is this, they have made their 12-25 million dollars and sales, with all the negative reviews, are likely stagnant. How much of that is going to go towards development and how much is going to line pockets? Once that has been decided, what is the threshold number of players required to continue development? Office space, salaries and tech don't come cheap. I have my doubts that with the current business model it will be sustainable for long. I hope I'm wrong, as I think the game has a lot of potential. But the over promise/under deliver method disappoints many. 

12-25 million sounds way off at peak of 58k let's say double that in copies sold minus 30% steam take on would put a high at 5 million

Edited by Hackjob

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3 minutes ago, Hackjob said:

12-25 million sounds way off at peak of 58k let's say double that in copies sold minus 30% steam take on would put a high at 5 million

Steam spy claims 500k-1M copies sold, just going off that. But if it's less, then that's more worrisome. 

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